News · Nutrition & Diet
Soda sales fell about 40% after Berkeley cleared sugary drinks from store checkouts, but candy sales did not
Berkeley became the first city to ban sugary drinks and sweets from the checkout line. Two years of scanner data show soda moved, candy mostly did not, and enforcement mattered.
- A before-and-after comparison of sales in 71 chain stores in Berkeley and three other California cities.
- Berkeley's 2021 law barred sweets and sugary or diet sodas from store checkouts; it became enforceable in 2022.
- Once enforced, soda sales in Berkeley stores were about 40% lower than in comparison cities.
- Overall candy sales did not fall, although small candy packs sold in supermarkets did.
- Sales are not the same as what people ate, and shoppers may have bought elsewhere.
The checkout line is the most valuable real estate in a store. Everyone passes through it, most people wait there with nothing to do, and the shelves at hip and eye height are stocked for exactly that moment: a cold drink, a chocolate bar, a pack of gum. A spot at the till is prized for a reason.
In 2021 Berkeley, California, became the first city to take sugary products off that shelf by law. A study in The Lancet Public Health tracked what happened to sales in 71 chain stores. Soda fell sharply once the rule was enforced. Candy, mostly, did not.
What the Berkeley checkout law covers
The authors describe the setting: placing products in prominent locations such as store checkouts can promote impulse purchases of foods and beverages high in added sugars. Berkeley’s ordinance banned the display of foods high in added sugars and sweetened drinks at checkouts, including sodas sweetened with sugar or with sugar substitutes.
The law took effect in March 2021 but only became enforceable on January 1, 2022. That gap turns out to matter, because it lets the study compare a rule on paper with a rule that inspectors could act on.
MedlinePlus lists the kinds of added sugar in question, noting sugars can be added to foods, such as the sugar in candy, desserts, processed foods, and regular soda. Those are exactly the products that tend to live at the till.
How the soda and candy study worked
The researchers analyzed Circana retail scanner data from 71 stores in Berkeley and three other comparison cities in California, covering 2019 to 2023. Scanner data record every product sold, so the analysis rests on millions of real purchases rather than what shoppers said they bought.
The design compares the change in Berkeley with the change in similar stores elsewhere over the same period. That strips out things that affected everyone, such as price rises or the pandemic, and isolates what was different about Berkeley.
What happened to soda and candy sales
Soda moved, and it moved most once the rule could be enforced. After enforcement, soda sales were about 3,900 liters lower per store each quarter, a drop of about 39.5% relative to the comparison cities. Large bottles fell furthest.
Candy told a different story. Overall candy sales increased after implementation, and after enforcement the change was too uncertain to call. There was one clear exception: supermarket sales of small packages of candy decreased by 132 kg after implementation, and fell further once the rule was enforced. Those small packs are the classic impulse buy at the till.
Why the checkout result matters for sugar policy
Most attempts to cut sugar lean on price, through soda taxes, or on information, through labels. A checkout rule works differently: it changes nothing about the product or its price, only where it sits, and it asks nothing of the shopper.
A drop of this size in soda sales, from a rule that costs little to administer, is a strong argument for the approach. The candy result is a useful warning in the other direction. Stores have many other prominent places to put sweets, and the authors conclude that implementation and enforcement strategies might need tailoring to close those gaps.
What store sales data cannot tell us
Sales are not diets. Nothing here measured what people in Berkeley ate or drank, their weight, or their health, and some shoppers may simply have bought soda at independent shops or restaurants, which the data do not cover.
The data captured 71 (39%) of 183 identified standalone chain locations, and results varied by store type, with supermarkets, drugstores and big-box stores responding differently. Berkeley is also one particular city, with its own shoppers and its own history of public health measures, so the same law elsewhere might do more or less.
What this changes for checkout laws elsewhere
For shoppers, very little day to day. The value of the finding lies with city councils and national governments weighing whether checkout rules are worth passing.
The answer from the first city to try is a qualified yes. Moving sugary drinks away from the till was followed by a large fall in soda sales, but only once the rule had teeth, and it did not stop candy from finding other shelves. Any place copying Berkeley would do well to copy the enforcement too, and to think about where the sweets go next.
People also ask
What did the study find?
After enforcement, soda sales were 3891 L per store-quarter lower (-39.5%) relative to comparison cities, with reduced sales of large soda packages (-42.5%). Overall candy sales increased after implementation (10.4%), and after enforcement the difference was 7.8% with a confidence interval including no change. Supermarket sales of small candy packages decreased by 43.2% after enforcement.
What does the Berkeley law do?
It prohibits the display of foods high in added sugars and of sweetened drinks, including diet sodas, at store checkouts. It took effect in March 2021 and became enforceable in January 2022.
Why target the checkout?
It is where shoppers wait with nothing to do and products are placed for impulse buys. Moving items away from it is meant to cut purchases people did not plan to make.
Did people just buy soda somewhere else?
Possibly. The data cover chain stores only, not independent corner shops or restaurants, so some purchases may simply have moved.
Why did candy not fall overall?
The study cannot say for sure. Stores may have moved candy to other prominent spots, or shoppers may have sought it out. Small candy packs in supermarkets did fall, which suggests the checkout still matters for that kind of impulse buy.
Does this show the law improved health?
No. It measured sales, not diets or health outcomes. Lower soda sales are a plausible step toward less sugar, but that was not measured here.